Predicting the outcome of the Premier League in a given season is always a fascinating exercise, blending analysis of current form, squad depth, managerial expertise, and historical context. At the start of the season, it’s nigh on impossible to work any of this out, but as we come to the tail end, we have a much better idea on how things are going to go.
We’ve created a model that looks at everything from form guides, xG, player injuries, home and away matches, travel time and even the weather forecast (!) and let AI do the rest! Check back at the end of May and let us know whether we were right or not!
As it Stands…
We’re writing this with Arsenal at the top of the table, keeping the pace after a simple 2-0 win last night, with Man City demolishing 4th placed Aston Villa. Liverpool are set to play theri game in hand tonight against Sheffield United, which should be a formality.
How it Ends…
ARSENAL
Remaining Fixtures: Brighton (A), Villa (H), Wolves (A), Chelsea (H), Spurs (A), Bournemouth (H), Man Utd (A), Everton (H)
Other Trophies: Champions League
Outright Odds at Betdaq: 3.75 (3rd favourites)
Arsenal have hit form at just the right time, unbeaten in the last 5 with only title-rivals Man City standing in their way of a clean sweep and maximum 15 points. Whilst Gary Neville thinks that Arsenal will come to regret their lack of aggression against City, getting a point at the Ethihad is something very few teams have managed all season.
Their final fixtures are complicated a little by the Champions League clashes against Bayern Munich, where they will get the chance to help make it another trophyless season for Harry Kane! We think they will make the cut on those, but that just adds to their already congested run-in.
Wins should be fairly straightforward in 5 of their final matches, and they will need to get maximum points against Tottenham away if they are to have any chance of winning the title. Our computer predicted that, whilst the Gunners will win against Spurs (again), they will fall short in their games against Chelsea and Manchester United, and ultimately finish in third.
LIVERPOOL
Remaining Fixtures: Sheff Utd (H), Man Utd (A), Palace (H), Fulham (A), Everton (A), West Ham (A), Spurs (H), Villa (A), Wolves (H)
Other Trophies: Europa League
Outright Odds at Betdaq: 2.23 (favourites)
After tonight’s win against Sheffield United, Liverpool have the trickier run-in, with 5 of the remaining games away from home. They will also have extra games from the Europa League, with Klopp having to take difficult decisions on who to rest in their Quarter Final matches against Atalanta. They should comfortably beat the Italians according to our data, which will mean Semi Finals and more matches, though Liverpool have the squad (and kids coming through) to deal with it! AC Milan are the biggest threat to Klopp landing another piece of silverware, to add to the Carabao Cup.
Our supercomputer thinks along the same lines as the bookies – despite the away run, Liverpool are predicted to win 7 of their last 9. The two games that might trip them up are Everton away (3 of the last 4 games they have played each other at Goodison have ended as a draw), and Spurs at home – with Spurs vying to Champion’s League status and without the distraction of the cups then they could be raring and ready to make the most of any Liverpool errors.
It will more than likely end in tears for Klopp whatever happens on the last day of the season, against Wolves in front of the Kop, but our AI model suggests that it will be with the Premier League trophy in hand!
MAN CITY
Remaining Fixtures: Palace (A), Luton (H), Chelsea (H), Brighton (A), Forest (A), Wolves (H), Fulham (A), West Ham (H)
Other Trophies: Champions League
Outright Odds at Betdaq: 3 (2nd favourites)
Of all three run-ins, Manchester City have it the easiest, with all 8 games looking fairly routine – perhaps Chelsea will be the closest to give them a run for their money, but it very much depends on which version of Pochettino’s team turns up, with them at times looking world-beaters and at times looking every part the ‘billion pound bottle jobs’ they were dismissed as.
Whilst Phil Foden was on electric form last night, the likes of Jermie Doku, KDB and Haaland have all looked out of sorts in recent weeks, and at times (most notably against Arsenal), Pep’s tactics have floundered, as teams slowly get to grips with knowing how to play against the Sky Blues, and start to isolate Haaland more effectively from the game.
Our model predicts a narrow loss against Real Madrid in the Quarter Finals, which sends City into a bit of a funk against Chelsea. Whilst they win their remaining matches, it’s just not enough as Liverpool win their game in hand and push the advantage. City end up in second.
