Liverpool will be top of the Premier League at Christmas after their thrilling 6-3 victory over Tottenham Hotspur. This marks the 21st time the Reds have led England’s top flight on December 25 – a record in English football history. But does being top at Christmas guarantee a title win? And what does the festive table mean for teams struggling at the bottom?
Historically, being first at Christmas has been a strong indicator of title success, but not a certainty. Over the past 31 Premier League seasons, the team leading on December 25 has gone on to win the title 18 times. That’s a success rate of around 58%, proving that while being top at Christmas is a good sign, it’s no guarantee of lifting the trophy in May.
Liverpool themselves have experienced both ends of the spectrum. They were top at Christmas in 2018-19 but ended up finishing second to Manchester City by a single point. The following season, however, they led at Christmas again and went on to win their first league title in 30 years. They were also top in 2020-21 but ended up finishing third after a difficult second half of the campaign.
For clubs at the bottom, the outlook is even more ominous. History shows that teams in the relegation zone at Christmas are in serious danger of going down. Of the 91 teams to have been in the bottom three on December 25 since the Premier League’s inception, 58 have ended up being relegated. That’s a survival rate of just 36%, meaning clubs struggling at this stage have a tough road ahead.
Liverpool’s position at the top sets up an intriguing second half of the season, with Arsenal, Manchester City, and Aston Villa all within striking distance. With Jurgen Klopp’s side showing attacking firepower and resilience, they will hope to turn their Christmas lead into another title celebration in May. But as history suggests, nothing is decided just yet
